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In 1984, after all the receipts were added up, the cost of "The Twelve Days of Christmas" would have set you back $12,623 -- the goods alone accounting for 62 percent of your total bill. Today, the numbers tell a different story. The total cost has climbed to $17,297, a 1.6 percent annualized increase over 20 years, but services now account for 74 percent of the index, indicating a steady rise in the cost of skilled labor while the price of two turtle doves and three French hens may be a little easier on your wallet.
(Photo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041129/NYM027 )
Every year since 1984, PNC Advisors has provided a tongue-in-cheek economic analysis, based on the cost of goods and services purchased by the True Love in the holiday classic, "The Twelve Days of Christmas."
The Christmas Price Index has consistently reflected changes in the economy and continues to do so in the 20th anniversary version. The 2.4 percent year-over-year increase in the index closely mirrors that of the government's Consumer Price Index -- a widely used measure of U.S. inflation. Not only is the high cost of fuel reflected in the cost to deliver a pear tree, but this year's index also underscores the trend to outsource labor. Skilled labor mentioned in the song, such as wages for the dancing ladies have increased 5.5 percent annualized over 20 years versus the maids-a-milking, which have only seen a 2.2 percent annualized pay raise. In the broader economy, the outsourcing of less skilled labor is helping to keep those wages low.
"The Christmas Price Index reflects the changing economic mix in the U.S. away from manufacturing to a more service based economy," said Jeff Kleintop, chief investment strategist for PNC Advisors. "The abundance of cheaper labor in countries such as India and China has resulted in pressure on U.S. manufacturers to outsource unskilled labor. As a result the cost of skilled dancers has steadily increased while the unskilled milk maids haven't managed an increase in pay for their services in many years."
The supply and demand lessons of "Economics 101" are also apparent in this year's Index. Take, for example, the 29.4 percent decrease in the price of the five gold rings. International demand has driven the commodity price of gold to all-time highs, but demand for plain gold rings in the U.S. has seen a significant drop, forcing retailers to lower prices in order to move merchandise. So those considering a trip to the jeweler to find that special gift this year may want to consider adding a little sparkle or you could find yourself standing in the return line on December 26th.
The feathered friends in the song are flying at all altitudes and have proven to show the most fluctuation in price through the life of the index. The partridge and swans are relatively steady from last year according to the Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden. However the price for French hens and geese saw significant increases, which may be due to fewer hatchlings during this breeding cycle creating an imbalance in the supply-demand chain. Turtledoves, on the other hand, may have had a more fruitful breeding cycle creating an oversupply of birds and a 31.0 percent decline in price. All told, the cost of the birds in the Christmas classic totaled $4,201, just 1.5 percent more than the $4,138 it would have cost a year ago.
As part of its annual tradition, PNC Advisors also tabulates the "true cost of Christmas," which is the total cost of all of the items in the famous carol, including the repetitions. The price tag for the 364 items this holiday season is $66,334 up from $65,264 in 2003. The 1.6 percent increase pales in comparison to last year's 19 percent increase, which may be due to lower consumer confidence this season according to Kleintop.
As in the past, most items are more expensive to buy over the Internet, primarily due to the cost of shipping, which continues to go up because of rising fuel costs.
PNC Advisors is the wealth management unit of The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., (NYSE: PNC), one of the nation's largest diversified financial services companies, operating businesses engaged in regional community banking, wholesale banking, wealth management, asset management and global fund processing services.
PNC Advisors' Christmas Price Index
Traditional
% Change
1984 2003 2004 2004/03
One Partridge in a Pear Tree $32.52 $77.50 $93.00 20.0%
Partridge 12.57 15.00 15.00 0.0%
Pear Tree 19.95 62.50 78.00 24.8%
Two Turtle Doves 47.71 58.00 40.00 -31.0%
Three French Hen 14.78 15.00 45.00 200.0%
Four Calling Birds 280.00 400.00 396.00 -1.0%
Five Gold Rings 275.00 361.25 255.00 -29.4%
Six Geese-a-Laying 150.00 150.00 210.00 40.0%
Seven Swans-a-Swimming 7,000.00 3500.00 3500.00 0.0%
Eight Maids-a-Milking 26.80 41.20 41.20 0.0%
Nine Ladies Dancing 1511.50 4230.89 4400.13 4.0%
10 Lords-a-Leaping 1679.45 3921.44 4039.08 3.0%
11 Pipers Piping 770.56 1982.40 2053.20 3.6%
12 Drummers Drumming 834.78 2147.60 2224.30 3.6%
Total Christmas Price Index $12,623.10 $16,885.28 $17,296.91 2.4%
% change
True cost of Christmas in
song $62,427.10 $65,264.28 $66,334.46 1.6%
% change
"Core" index, excluding swans $13,385.28 $13,796.91 3.1%
PNC Advisors' Christmas Price Index (continued)
Internet
% Change
2003 2004 2004/03
One Partridge in a Pear Tree $171.67 $147.50 -14.1%
Partridge 66.67 67.50 1.2%
Pear Tree 105.00 80.00 -23.8%
Two Turtle Doves 100.00 105.00 5.0%
Three French Hen 172.50 202.50 17.4%
Four Calling Birds 330.00 429.00 30.0%
Five Gold Rings 183.75 240.00 30.6%
Six Geese-a-Laying 375.00 600.00 60.0%
Seven Swans-a-Swimming 4620.00 6125.00 32.6%
Eight Maids-a-Milking 296.00 296.00 0.0%
Nine Ladies Dancing 6450.00 6,600.00 2.3%
10 Lords-a-Leaping 10122.85 10,629.00 5.0%
11 Pipers Piping 1600.00 1,650.00 3.1%
12 Drummers Drumming 687.50 712.50 3.6%
Total Christmas Price Index $25,109.27 $27,736.50 10.5%
% change
True cost of Christmas in song $101,206.09 $115,460.50 14.1%
% change
"Core" index, excluding swans $20,489.27 $21,611.50 5.5%
Photo: NewsCom: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20041129/NYM027
AP Archive: http://photoarchive.ap.org/
PRN Photo Desk, photodesk@prnewswire.com
SOURCE: The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.
CONTACT: Becky Radosevich, +1-412-768-5770, rebecca.radosevich@pnc.com,
or Maureen Brown, +1-412-768-2752, maureen.brown@pnc.com, both of The PNC
Financial Services Group, Inc.
Web site: http://www.pnc.com/
Company News On-Call: http://www.prnewswire.com/comp/701257.html
